Критичні чинники та перспективи відновлення світової економіки в умовах глобальної рецесії COVID-19

Abstract

The article focuses on identifying and systematizing the hallmarks of the COVID-19 recession as unprecedented in terms of the both spread and impact on the global economy in the phase of business activity downturn. The dynamics of the main indicators of economic growth are researched and it is substantiated that the negative linear forecast trends allow forecasting the long-term recovery period after the current global recession. It is shown that the global recession of 2020 negatively affects the prospects for the recovery of major national economies of the world, given the high probability of the introduction of repeated quarantine restrictions. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of the index of global economic uncertainty, the world economy is confirmed to be in the most uncertain state during the period of observations. According to the analysis of the values of the barometer of world trade in goods in 2020, negative changes in the structure and dynamics of foreign trade turnover and doubt for the rapid recovery of global supply chains were evidenced. Based on the generalization of the results of the study, key distinctive signs of the COVID-19 economic recession have been systematized justifying that, in addition to any recession inherent in the loss of growth rate of world production, the current economic crisis is accompanied by a drop reaching the critical deadlines of a number of indicators of the intensity of global development, which confirms its unprecedented spread and impact on the world economy. It is substantiated that the confirmation of the determined trends allows to predict the long-term negative consequences of the modern global recession, which leads to the need to substantiate the directions of recovery of the world economy and foreign trade cooperation of the countries under crisis conditions.