Оценка эффектов пандемии COVID-19 для туризма на основе агрегированного показателя

Abstract

The purpose of the work is to propose and test a method for assessing the effects of the pandemic on Russian tourism in comparison with a number of other countries based on an aggregate indicator of the contribution of this industry to the economy. The role and place of the tourism industry in the global economy, the industry characteristics of tourism and the special significance of measures to support it in modern Russian economic policy are characterized. A cross-country comparative analysis of the aggregated indicator of the contribution of tourism to the economy was carried out, which was calculated on the basis of three partial indicators: the contribution of the tourism industry to the country's GDP; share of tourism in the total number of jobs; share of spending by incoming tourists in total exports. Data used from the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). The pandemic contraction and subsequent recovery of the industry are described by indices of the aggregate indicator, where its value in 2019 is taken as the base. It was revealed that among the G20 countries, Russia ranks second to last in terms of the aggregate indicator of the contribution of tourism to the economy. At the same time, it demonstrates a relatively small “compression” of the industry in 2020 and a low rate of industry recovery in 2021. The weak response of Russian tourism to the pandemic can be explained, firstly, by the relatively small significance of its initial contribution to the economy and, secondly, by government employment support measures taken in 2020. At the same time, the low rate of restoration of the contribution of Russian tourism to the economy in 2021 indicates the need to increase the effectiveness of industry regulation measures and, for this purpose, study the best global practices for restoring tourism in countries such as Mexico, Italy, Turkey, etc.