НАСЛІДКИ COVID-19 ДЛЯ СВІТОВОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ: ПЕРШІ ПІДСУМКИ 2020 РОКУ

Abstract

The purpose of article is to comprehensively assess the consequences of COVID-19 for global economy, regions, industries and different forms of international economic relations. In early 2020, the world was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. To save the lives of citizens and the integrity of the health care system, countries were forced to resort to radical measures: lockdowns, which included the complete or partial cessation of international traffic and the reduction of economic activity. Such actions had a negative impact on the world economy: a drop in world production, a decrease in international demand, an increase in unemployment and poverty, a decline in FDI flows. The situation has reached the level of the Great Depression of the 1930s. The COVID-19 crisis has affected regions in different ways. The research methodology combines general and special methods of scientific knowledge: descriptive-analytical, analysis and synthesis, methods of quantitative and qualitative comparisons. The information basis of the article is research and periodical publications of foreign economists, materials and analytical reports of international organizations. The results of the study revealed that the global economic crisis caused by COVID-19 started with China, which applied extremely strict quarantine restrictions and already at the end of 2020 showed economic growth. And gradually spread to Europe, North America and the rest of the world. The negative impact of COVID-19 on developed countries with a high proportion of the older people among the population most vulnerable to the disease has been most noticeable. Europe is the region that has suffered the most. For Latin America, Africa and parts of developing Asia, the COVID-19 crisis has been burdened by permanent economic problems and natural disasters: the weakness of the financial system, large public debt, high dependence on commodity prices, locust infestations etc. Developed countries had a margin of stability, so they conducted large-scale programs to support business and households, especially effective were credit guarantee and job preservation state programs. While developing countries were less affected by the spread of the disease but did not have the financial resources to deploy large-scale government assistance programs. New imbalances have emerged in the structure of the world economy. Some industries suffered huge losses and found themselves on the brink of survival (tourism, hotel and restaurant business, entertainment, etc.), unemployment rose significantly; others, on the contrary, worked at full capacity 24/7 and workers were forced to work overtime. FDI flows fell below the level of 2008-2009. The least FDI came to developed countries. Most FDI accounted for mergers and acquisitions in 2020, while investment in existing production assets suffered the most. This trend is expected to continue in 2021. According to the forecast, 2021 should mark the beginning of economic recovery, but it is unlikely to reach the level of 2019. The results of this study could be used in further research, also as in development, planning and implementation of state crisis strategies.