칠레 CDM 사업의 온실가스 감축비용 분석

Abstract

The GHG emission abatement costs of clean development mechanism (CDM) projects are needed to forecast the abatement cost of the cooperative approaches and the sustainable mechanism of the Paris Agreement. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the GHG emission abatement cost of CDM projects in Chile using three kinds of investment analysis: simple cost analysis, investment comparison, and benchmark analysis. The average abatement cost of 53 CDM projects is $13.87/tCO₂ (2020 price). The cost of wind projects is the highest ($22.64/tCO₂), followed by fuel switch ($22.39/tCO₂), biomass ($16.19/tCO₂), PV16.17/tCO₂), small hydro ($11.33/tCO₂), methane recovery ($10.60/tCO₂), and LFG ($4.35/tCO₂). Economies of scale are a factor in wind, LFG and methane avoidance projects, while higher investment leads to higher abatement cost for small hydro, PV, wind and biomass. Economies of time are a factor in LFG, and wind, LFG, and small hydro are affected by technology development. There was a relationship between abatement cost and share of CDM activities for small hydro, biomass and fuel switch. Cost-effective mitigation strategy is to consider projects with higher mitigation potential at the same marginal abatement cost (MAC). A cost-effective strategy at a MAC of $10-20/tCO₂ is to consider LFG, wind/methane avoidance, PV, biomass, small hydro. The cost-effective strategy at a MAC of over $30/tCO₂ is to consider wind, PV, biomass, small hydro.