아세안 산업분석: 상장기업을 중심으로 (ASEAN Industry Analysis: A Preliminary Study)

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 기업재무자료를 이용하여 아세안 전체 및 국가별로 산업별 규모, 수익성, 성장성 등 산업특성을 동태적으로 분석하면 우리 정부의 아세안 경제협력과 기업의 아세안 시장진출에 있어서 산업특성에 따른 전략적 판단의 유용한 근거로 사용할 수 있다. 이 보고서는 이러한 작업을 위한 시범적 성격의 연구로 이번 연도에서는 우선 아세안 6개국 상장기업의 2017년도 횡단면 자료를 이용하여 산업분석을 수행하고 이후 단계의 시계열 자료 구축과 분석을 위한 후속연구를 계획하였다 English Abstract: In order to improve the quality of decision-making by Korean policy makers and members of the business community with respect to Korea's economic engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), better data and more systematic analysis are needed. One way to achieve this is to use a type of industry analysis where firm-level data are aggregated to an industry level over time and industry characteristics such as size, profitability and growth potential are identified and analyzed in a systematic way. The output can be used as a useful basis for strategic decisions as to how Korea should effectively engage the ASEAN economies. Common approaches to ASEAN industries tend to use macro data such as industrial production in the national accounts framework or trade and foreign direct investment statistics, while it has been rare to use micro data gathered at the firm level. Even when firm-level data are used, it is usually in the form of surveys with a narrow focus on business decisions and sentiments. Survey data on ASEAN industries tend to be limited in representation, data continuity, and detailed information on corporate finance. In this study, we adopt a dynamic industry analysis framework from Chang (2014), which aggregates firm-level data to an industry level to classify ASEAN industries according to their characteristics. Specifically, we analyze market capitalization, assets, sales, and profitability of listed firms in six major ASEAN countries. This is a pilot study and should be regarded as a first installment of a long series of investigations. We have to adopt a sequential approach due to the challenges of obtaining high-quality firm-level data in all ASEAN countries in a comparable format. Expanding beyond listed firms poses a considerable challenge and we add a discussion of how we plan to expand our future research in the conclusion of this report.