Abstract
Analysis of synoptic data from the Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM) of the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) and the NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph (SPM) at the NSO/Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope facility shows that the reversals of solar polar magnetic fields exhibit ele-ments of a stochastic process, which may include the development of specific patterns of emerging magnetic flux, and the asymmetry in activity between northern and southern hemispheres. The presence of such irregu-larities makes the modeling and prediction of polar field reversals extremely hard if possible. In a classical model of solar activity cycle, the unipolar magnetic regions (UMRs) of predominantly following polarity fields are transported polewards due to meridional flows and dif-fusion. The UMRs gradually cancel out the polar mag-netic field of the previous cycle, and rebuild the polar field of opposite polarity setting the stage for the next cycle. We show, however, that this deterministic picture can be easily altered by the developing of a strong cen-ter of activity, or by the emergence of an extremely large active region, or by a ‘strategically placed’ coronal hole. We demonstrate that the activity occurring during the current cycle 24 may be the result of this random-ness in the evolution of the solar surface magnetic field.
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