Анализ динамики пассажиропотока поездов «Сапсан» и авиационного транспорта на линии «Москва–Санкт-Петербург» до 2025 г.

Abstract

Objective: To analyze passenger flow trends of “Sapsan” trains and air transport on “Moscow–Saint Petersburg” direction; to forecast passenger flow of the given types of transport taking into account economic activity and tourism in Moscow and Saint Petersburg for the period of 2010 through to 2025; to calculate the predicted values of passenger flow at the given direction. Methods: Correlation and multiple regression analysis were applied. Results: The trends of passenger flows of “Sapsan” trains were analyzed for the period in question and of air transport for the period of 2010 through to 2018 on the route Moscow–Saint Petersburg. Special attention is paid to the design of passenger flow forecast mathematical model with allowance for its dependence on social and economic factors in the operating domain under study. Statistical data on the occupancy of hotels in Moscow and Saint Petersburg was selected as the factors in question; the former characterize mainly tourist passenger flow section as well as gross regional product which reflect the economic development and economic activity of the cities. Passenger flow forecast of the described types of transport was carried out for the period up to 2025. Practical importance: The conclusion was made on feasibility of studies in the sphere of passenger traffic forecast, especially under the conditions of changing tourist and economic activity on the given route, as well as strong competition among the studing types of transport in question.