Тенденции преодоления кризиса Народной партии Испании (2018–2022 гг.) в контексте электоральных процессов

Abstract

Introduction. The crisis of the People’s Party of Spain, the most influential political force in the country, is one of the manifestations of the transformation of the party system. The scientific topic is important in predicting the development of the party system, public opinion, and voting in Spain. Methods and materials. The purpose of the article is to find out the trends in overcoming the crisis in the Spanish People’s Party (2018–2022) in the context of changes in the party system and electoral processes. The study is carried out on the basis of rational choice theory. The author conducted a secondary analysis of the results of sociological surveys and compiled diachronous voting tables. Analysis and results. The transformation of the two-party system of Spain into a multiparty system of moderate pluralism for 2015–2022 is revealed. The differences in the social base, programs, and positioning of the parties on the right spectrum are determined: the People’s Party, “Vox”, and “Citizens”. As a result of the analysis of sources, the causes and manifestations of the crisis of the People’s Party are revealed, and its stages are established. In addition, the forecast of trends in the development of the influence of the People’s Party in the upcoming national and regional elections is argued. Conclusion. Among Spain’s right-wing parties, the People’s Party occupies a center-right stance, compared to the centrist “Citizens” and the radical right-wing “Vox”. The reasons for the crisis of the People’s Party are its long-term ties with big business, participation in corruption scandals, weak influence on potential groups of the electoral base, the low popularity of a number of leaders (M. Rajoy and P. Casado), and factionalism. However, the pandemic contributed to the decline in the rating of the center-left government, which allowed the People’s Party to increase its influence in elections since 2021. Negotiations are possible on the creation of a pragmatic coalition of the two main political forces: the People’s Party and the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party. Such a coalition could be based on a shift in the socialists policy to the right. In the second, more likely option, the People’s Party will have to bloc with other right-wing parties; the right-wing radical “Vox” party will add the largest number of mandates to create a government. Consequently, the victory of the right forces will lead to the continuation of the tradition of creating pragmatic, forced coalitions of parties ideologically alien to each other.