Фактори економічного зростання в Україні в 2016–2018 рр.

Abstract

The article considers the main factors of economic growth in Ukraine, starting with the macrostructural shifts in the incomes of the institutional sectors, which resulted in resumed recovery of the level of gross savings and gross fixed capital formation and allowed to increase the supply potential. The author analyzes the influence of the current revival of investment and consumer demand, and external demand, on the GDP dynamics, as well as the causes of the strengthening of the import component on Ukraine's market. It is found that, despite the improvement of the companies' financial results, the rates of capitalization of gross savings in the sector of non-financial corporations are not sufficient due to structural distortions in the distribution of income among economic activities with a concentration of financial resources in the mining and quarrying. And the share of net profits of the producers of investment and consumer resources remains small, which reduces their investment potential and solvency. In turn, the rate of replenishment of the resource base of the banking system from the households' savings is rather weak, since the overwhelming majority of the latter has no money savings at all, and their richer fractions return their savings to banks in a very slow pace. It is proved that uncurbed inflation blocks the achievement of macroeconomic stabilization, and the lack of credits prevents domestic producers from responding adequately to growing consumer and investment demand. It is emphasized that, by intensifying consumer lending, the banking system has created an asymmetry between the financial support of consumer demand and the weak credit support of the domestic producers of consumer goods, which is reflected in the growth of imports even in the group of food products, where Ukrainian producers have every opportunity to keep their market shares on condition of their loan support. Hence, the most pessimistic expectations are still related to the potential of domestic producers in terms of import substitution and increase in non-raw exports. Moreover, taking into account the divergence between the companies' needs for credits and lack of motivation for the banking system to open credit windows, further loss in the shares of Ukrainian producers is expected on both domestic and foreign markets, as Ukraine has no tools for their support, and the banking system mainly provides resources for consumers and importers of consumer goods.