Кризис-менеджмент в российско-турецких отношениях (на примере сирийского кризиса 2010–2021 гг.)

Abstract

Introduction. In recent years, issues related to the Syrian crisis, including the shooting down of a Turkish fighter jet by Syria on June 22, 2012, the forced landing of a Syrian passenger plane in Ankara on October 10, 2012, and the shooting down of a Russian Su-24 jet by Turkey on November 24, 2015, have become a serious challenge for Russia and Turkey. Moscow and Ankara took completely opposite positions and moved to direct confrontation, but gradually these two actors managed to avoid an escalation of tensions by synchronizing their positions. Methods and materials. The main research question is: how did Russia and Turkey deal with competition and tension in their relations, which pushed them to cooperate? In response to this hypothesis, it is assumed that along with all the constant and variable factors, including geopolitics, economic cooperation, and opposition to Western unilateralism, this cooperation between the two leaders, Putin and Erdogan, has led to a kind of crisis management and a reduction in tensions between the two countries. This has created a delicate balance of competition and cooperation between the two countries. As a theoretical approach, this study examines international crisis management and its applied interpretation in political research on conflict management (conflict situations) and the role of personality and the “rational actor” model in decision-making theory. The research method in this article is a case study; several crisis cases were analyzed, and the main influencing factors in controlling the relationship between the two countries were identified. Results. The main conclusion of the study is that in crisis management, the role of the individual in the image of an intelligent leader in the implementation of policies with full control over subordinate organizations played a significant role. Authors’ contribution. Mehdi Sanaei is responsible for the concept of the article, the development of its theoretical part, the identification and discussion of controversial issues about crisis and conflict management, and the assessment of information sources. Kamran Hooshyar studied the literature and expert opinions, tested the hypothesis about the large role of the heads of state of Russia and Turkey as political leaders in cooperation, and analyzed the economic and political aspects of cooperation between the two states.