ДИНАМИКА ЭПИДЕМИЧЕСКОГО ПРОЦЕССА ПАРВОВИРУСНОЙ ИНФЕКЦИИ В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ БЕЛАРУСЬ (2005-2016)

Abstract

Aim: To establish the regularities of long-term and annual dynamics in morbidity of parvovirus infection in Belarus during 2005 – 2016 based on the laboratory confirmed cases of exanthematous form of the diseases. Material and methods. Long-term dynamics was estimated by morbidity per 100,000 in general population. The trend was determined by the method of least squares. The annual dynamics was studied according to the typical and group curves, the seasonal rise was detected by the Poisson method. Results. The epidemic process of parvovirus infection was characterized by increasing of permanently acting factors influence with an average growth rate of 6.9%. It was most likely due to an improvement of supervisory activities quality. Periodic factors formed the cycle of the epidemic process for 9 years (the phase of distress lasted 2 years, the phase of well-being – 7 years). Conclusions. Parvovirus infection has a significant role in the structure of acute exanthemes in Belarus. The annual dynamics was formed by the influence of year-round and seasonal factors and was characterized by winterspring-summer seasonality in the distress years and spring-summer one – in well-being years. The intensity increase of the epidemic process is mainly due to seasonal factors.