ПОЛІТИКА МАСШТАБУ ТА ТЕРИТОРІАЛЬНА ПОЛЯРИЗАЦІЯ ЕЛЕКТОРАЛЬНИХ УПОДОБАНЬ В УКРАЇНІ, 2002–2014

Abstract

Nationalization of the party system and electorates not obviously results in the territorial homogenization of voting behavior or shifts from the territorial to functional cleavages. Elections outcomes in Ukraine are broadly analyzed from the perspective of regional divisions, compositional effects, cleavages, and polarization of political beliefs. However, we assume that spatiality of electoral behavior in Ukraine is more complex and might be better understood from the perspective of the TPSN framework – intertwined and mutually constitutive effects of territory (T), place (P), scale (S) and networks (N). The paper aims to analyze territorial homogenization, heterogeneity, and polarization of electoral behavior in Ukraine using data at polling stations level for 2002-2014 parliamentary elections. We use Lee index (the analysis of variance using mean absolute deviation divided by two to avoid double counting) to analyze territorial homogenization. The study reveals that in 2002-2014 Ukraine was continually territorially homogenized, while, at the same time, territorially polarized – national territorial homogenization index was decreasing (higher homogenization), while the index for particular regions (Galicia and Donbas) was permanently high (higher polarization) in 2002-2012 for Galicia and in 2006-2014 for Donbas oblasts. The cartographic analysis reveals that electoral behavior patterns and territorial polarization often follow administrative borders (oblast or rayon level) as well as historical borders (the interwar border between USSR and Poland and the border between Austrian and Russian empires). Analysis of Manafort trial court documents also reveals strategic deployment of geographical scale by Party of Regions. Despite being empirically very limited, this study shows that mutual effects of bounded territories, place contexts, scale, and networks are crucial for the understanding how parties territorially structure Ukraine.