ДИНАМІКА І СТРУКТУРА ІНВЕСТИЦІЙ В УКРАЇНІ – «ПАСТКА ДИВЕРГЕНТНОСТІ» ТЕХНОЛОГІЧНОГО МАЙБУТНЬОГО

Abstract

The globalized economy is entering a difficult period of technological transformation in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Studies of leading international organizations (UNIDO, UNCTAD, WEF) on the conceptual directions of technological change and the readiness of different countries around the world for future changes have shown their significant stratification. The main drivers of future production are: “technology and innovation,” “human capital,” “global trade,” “investment,” “institutional environment” and “financial resources.” Ukraine has been identified as an “immature” country, i.e. one that is not ready for future technological changes and needs increased attention to the transformation of the institutional environment, technology and innovation, access to finance, industrial structure, and so on. The “immaturity” of the Ukrainian economy is due to the crisis of investment activity in 2010-2021, when the share of capital investment in GDP averaged only 15.5%. The structure of foreign and capital investments by type of industrial activity is dominated by investments in low-tech industries. The share of foreign and capital investment in education and health care does not exceed 1–1.5% of the total, which in the medium term may reduce the quality of human capital. Given the outlined trends in the medium term in Ukraine there is a high probability of forming a “divergence trap” of technological development with global trends in the formation of the digital economy and Industry 4.0. In view of this, Ukraine needs to intensify state regulation in the field of investment, develop its own unique strategy for future production and economic transformation. At the same time, a double approach is possible: with the transition of some industries to the latest paradigm of technological growth, and others to the modernization of traditional technologies.