데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 대학수학능력시험 영어영역 정답률 예측 및 주요 요인 분석

Abstract

College Scholastic Ability Test(CSAT) is a primary test to evaluate the study achievement of high-school students and used by most universities for admission decision in South Korea. Because its level of difficulty is a significant issue to both students and universities, the government makes a huge effort to have a consistent difficulty level every year. However, the actual levels of difficulty have significantly fluctuated, which causes many problems with university admission. In this paper, we build two types of data-driven prediction models to predict correct answer rate and to identify significant factors for CSAT English test through accumulated test data of CSAT, unlike traditional methods depending on experts’ judgments. Initially, we derive candidate question-specific factors that can influence the correct answer rate, such as the position, EBS-relation, readability, from the annual CSAT practices and CSAT for 10 years. In addition, we drive context-specific factors by employing topic modeling which identify the underlying topics over the text. Then, the correct answer rate is predicted by multiple linear regression and level of difficulty is predicted by classification tree. The experimental results show that 90% of accuracy can be achieved by the level of difficulty (difficult/easy) classification model, whereas the error rate for correct answer rate is below 16%. Points and problem category are found to be critical to predict the correct answer rate. In addition, the correct answer rate is also influenced by some of the topics discovered by topic modeling. Based on our study, it will be possible to predict the range of expected correct answer rate for both question-level and entire test-level, which will help CSAT examiners to control the level of difficulties.