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Abstract

Ensuring safety in emergency situations requires the reliable functioning of the response system to emergency of a natural, man-made and social nature, correspondent to the levels and nature of the threats. An important aspect of this activity is the timely assessment and prediction of the state of threats to the territory and population of the regions of the state, since the civil protection forces are distributed within the boundaries of the administrative-territorial units (regions, districts, cities, etc.). Each administrative-territorial unit has its own levels of natural, technological and social risks, which significantly affect the composition of forces and means for an adequate response to emergency situations of a different nature.Based on the average annual number of emergency situations, the article developed a statistical method for assessing the state of threats to the territory and population of the administrative-territorial units of the state, taking into account the area of their territory and the number of people. The method allows you to classify the administrative-territorial units (regions) of the state according to the corresponding levels of threats to the territory and population of the region: relatively optimal, relatively acceptable and relatively unacceptable.Based on the proposed method, a model has been developed for assessing the state of threats to the territory and population of the state. This model includes logical modules connected into a single whole and informationally interconnected by purpose: the base of factual data on emergency situations of natural, technogenic and social nature both in the state as a whole and in its regions, a module of assessing of an indicator of threats to the territory and population of regions of the state, a module for assessing the complex indicator, a module for assessing the relative coefficient of annual intensity, a module for classifying levels of state of threat.As a result of experimental studies based on statistics on emergency situations in Ukraine, it was found that the highest level of threats was obtained for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, Dnepropetrovsk and Lviv regions.