공간변이할당모형을 이용한 항만의 대중국 수출의 공간전염분석과 불변시장점유율과의 결합을 통한 수출변동의 예측

Abstract

The decomposition of the exports of individual ports shows different patterns of performance. Some ports have a mediocre performance and experience a decrease in their share of exports, but other ports record a good export performance. This paper applies constant market share model and shift share model to export variation of individual ports. The constant market shares analysis shows that Incheon Port and Pyeongtaek Port suffering from poor export performance have negative value for the competitiveness effect, while the ports composed of Gwangyang Port, Busan Port, Ulsan Port, and Daesan Port experiencing export increase have positive values for the competitiveness effect between 2016 and 2018. The competitiveness effect has asymmetric effects on export variation since the competitiveness effect has a strong impact on the export decrease but exerts very weak influence for export increase. The shift share analysis also shows that Busan Port, Gwangyang Port, and Ulsan Port have comparative competitive advantage over the other three ports but their export increase is owing to world growth effect rather than their competitiveness.