Долгосрочная оценка режима минимального зимнего стока рек бассейна озера Севан при изменении климата

Abstract

Introduction. Analysis and assessment of the statistically significant consequences of climate change for the long-term minimum 30-day winter runoff of rivers in the Lake Sevan basin is of significant interest to consumers and water resource management, being an important hydrological issue. The relevance of consideration of the issue is due to the fact that for Armenia Lake Sevan is a strategic reservoir of fresh water, a large water management complex, a source of water for hydropower and agricultural irrigation, an object of tourism and recreation. Issues of formation and calculation of the minimum runoff of rivers in the lake basin. Sevan were discussed in works, the analysis of the spatial-temporal distribution of the winter minimum decade-day, monthly and 30-day runoff can be found, for example, in works.In contrast to the listed works, in this study a technique for assessing the statistically significant consequences of climate change for the hydrological regime in relation to small foothill watersheds of the rivers of the Lake Sevan basin (Republic of Armenia) is considered. The values of the minimum 30-day water runoff within the study area can be used when calculating standards for permissible discharges into rivers, to assess natural groundwater resources, as indicators of the extremeness of river flow and in other water management calculations. Research methods and materials. The methodology is based on a probabilistic model of the formation of long-term river runoff, which is approximated by a system of linear equations for the initial statistical moments. As the source material were used the data of actual hydrometeorological observations (minimum 30-day winter river runoff, air temperature and precipitation) of the “Center for Hydrometeorology and Monitoring” of the SNCO of the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Armenia. Research results. The results of approbation of the methodology on retrospective material are presented, taking into account possible climate change both towards warming and towards cooling.The conditions for the applicability of the methodology to small foothill watersheds for assessing the minimum 30-water winter river runoff are identified. The obtained satisfactory results made it possible to assess the impact of climate change for the minimum runoff using the IPCC climate scenarios. Three climatic scenarios are considered, the model of the Max Planck Institute with a monthly time resolution. Conclusions. As a result, watersheds of rivers in the basin of Lake Sevan were identified, in which significant deviations of the predicted average annual values of the minimum 30-day winter runoff and the coefficients of its variation from the actual ones in the implementation of the considered scenarios can be expected. An analysis of the obtained results is given from the point of view of taking possible preventive measures, including strategic planning of the use of water resources in winter low water, in case of climate change.