Abstract
The effect of climate changes on mean annual air temperature (MAAT) with AOGCM models in Khuzestan province in Iran is investigated in this study. Seven models of AR4 AOGCM models including HADCM3, CNRMCM3, CSIROMK3.0, GFDLCM2.0, INMCM3.0, IPSLCM4, and BCM2.0 for future period (2040–2069) under A2, B1 and A1B emission scenarios is considered with respect to observed period (1982–2011). For downscaling AOGCMs data, LARS-WG model was used. Investigation of (MAAT) in 9 selected stations during 1982 to 2011 years showed increasing trend of mean slop in all stations. Maximum and minimum increasing changes occurred under A2 scenario in Shahid abbaspour Dam and Dezful stations with 2.1 °C and B1 scenario in Abadan station with 1.3 °C and A1B scenario in Abadan station with 1.9 °C. Spatial analysis of (MAAT) under two GHG emission scenarios for whole of Khuzestan province showed increasing changes from northwest to southeast of study area. The results has also showed that there are more uncertainties in AOGCM models than emission scenarios.
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