未来气候变化对山地生物气候类型分布的影响——以四川省为例

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 未来气候变化对山地生物气候类型分布的影响--以四川省为例 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201401200148 作者: 作者单位: 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,环境保护部外经中心,中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,环境保护部外经中心,环境保护部外经中心 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(41371539) Impact of climate change on bioclimatic types in a mountain area-a case from Sichuan Province, China Author: Affiliation: Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS,,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS,, Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:使用生物气候分类法评估气候变化下生态系统变化的区域,对于气候变化下生态系统的保护有着重要的意义。但是现有的研究由于分析尺度较大,难以反映气候变化对于山地生态系统的影响。选取四川省为研究区,使用区域气候模型(RegCM4.0)对未来气候变化进行预估,在此基础上按照柯本生物气候分类法划分原则,分别对当前1981-2010,未来2011-2040,2031-2060以及2070-2099时段四川省柯本气候类型进行识别并分析各类型的转变。结果表明(1)当前四川省分布的柯本气候类型共包括3个主要类型,分别为暖温带气候带(C),冷温带气候带(D),极地气候带(E),其面积分别占四川省总面积的54%,22%和24%。(2)在未来各时段内,四川省柯本气候类型总体分布格局并无明显变化。但是未来气候变化程度足以使得部分区域内的生物气候类型发生转变,其中最大的转变发生于E类型向D类型的转变。相比当前时段,到2070-2099时段C类型和D类型增加面积占当前分布面积的13%和20%,E类型减少面积占当前分布面积的48%。对比不同时段的转变速率,近期的气候变化对于生物气候类型的影响要大于远期的气候变化。(3)由于受气候变化的影响,各柯本气候类型分布的平均海拔均向高海拔区域上移,C类,D类和E类型分布平均海拔的上移速率分别为2.9,3.4 m/a和1.8 m/a。此外,经统计生物气候类型发生变化区域的海拔主要为3800-4500 m。 Abstract:It is important to assess the impact of climate change on ecosystems for ecological conservation. Climate–vegetation models are considered to provide an effective way of demonstrating climate change impacts. One such model, Köppen Classification, is widely used to estimate the effects of global climate change on ecosystems. However, due to climate surface resolution limitations, previous studies have not been able to completely reflect the impact of climate change on different ecosystem types in some mountain areas. Sichuan Province, which is located in the southwest of China, is sensitive to climate change because of its complex topography. In this paper, we used Köppen Classification to quantify the changes of bioclimatic types for Sichuan Province under climate change. We employed Regional Climate Model 4.0 to project monthly temperature and precipitation from 1981 to 2099. Then, the model output was calibrated by using data from 204 meteorological stations in and around Sichuan Province. Subsequently, spatial interpolation software, Anusplin 4.3.6, was used to downscale temperature and precipitation data, using elevation as an independent covariable. A 1 km x 1 km spatial resolution was selected for the climate data. Considering the uncertainty in climate change, we selected three time periods to analyze the distribution of Köppen climates, including 2010 (representing the 30-year average for 1981-2010), 2040 (representing the 30-year average for 2011-2040), 2060 (representing the 30-year average for 2031-2060), and 2099 (representing the 30-year average for 2070-2099). The 1981-2010 period was used as a baseline to represent "current climate." First, we found that there were three bioclimatic types in the current period, including temperate climates (C), continental climates (D), and polar climates (E). C type, D type, and E type climates cover 54%, 22%, and 24% of the total area in Sichuan Province, respectively. Second, we found that the spatial patterns of bioclimatic types will not noticeably alter between 1981 and 2099, because neither new types nor current types appear or disappear, respectively. However, the changes in temperature were sufficient to cause shifts in bioclimatic types. Between 1981-2010 and 2070-2099, the areas covered by C and D types will increase by about 13% and 20%, respectively. In contrast, the relative area covered by E type during this period will decrease by about 48%. The maximum shift mainly refers to E type, while the maximum shift was observed for both E to D types. In addition, our results indicate that bioclimatic types display different rates of shifts in different time periods. For instance, the rate of change in 2011-2040 is greater than that in 2031-2060 and 2070-2099. Therefore, the response of ecosystem types to climate change in Sichuan Province is expected to be more drastic in the near future (2011-2040) compared to the distant-future (2031-2060 and 2070-2099). Third, we found that all the distribution of all types would shift in space, moving towards higher altitudes. Between 1981-2010 and 2070-2099, the shift rates along altitudinal gradients for C, D, and E types is expected to average 2.9 m per year, 3.4 m per year, and 1.8 m per year, respectively. By calculating the changed area in elevation zones of 100 m intervals, the changed area will be concentrated at an elevation range of 3800 m to 4500 m. Therefore, elevation zones should be considered for ecosystem conservation under climate change. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献