Циклы Кондратьева в экономике Индии и Китая

Abstract

The Kondratieff cycles in the economy of India and China are determined. We used time series of real per capita GNP. The study carried out by constructing econo-metric models that include a cyclical component. Modeling made it possible to establish the Kondratyev cycles in the national production and give the periodization of the Kon-dratyev cycles in the national production of India and China. The upward half-wave of the fourth Kondratieff cycle appeared in India in 1984 and in China in 1964. An up-ward half-wave of the fifth Kondratyev cycle in India expected in 2032. The upward half-wave of the fifth Kondratyev cycle in China occurred in 2010. India currently dominated by the fourth technological; the transition to the dominance of the fifth tech-nological order can be expected in 2032. China currently dominated by the fifth techno-logical order. It be considered justified the possibility of leadership in the world econo-my of China. There is not enough reason to assume the possibility of India's passage to leadership in the world economy in the middle of the 21st century.