黄河流域国土空间碳中和度研究——以内蒙古段为例

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 黄河流域国土空间碳中和度研究——以内蒙古段为例 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202201120117 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（71921003）；自然资源部研究项目 Territorial spatial carbon neutrality realization degree of the Yellow River Basin: A case study of the Inner Mongolia section Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan) 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:基于全球气候治理背景以及黄河流域在我国生态文明建设中的重要地位，以黄河流域内蒙古段为例，通过情景分析法，建立改进的IPAT模型和集成生态圈模拟器IBIS，预测不同情景下2018-2060年研究区碳排放变化趋势和达峰情况，并结合对碳汇水平的模拟分析2060年碳中和实现进程。结果显示①在基准情景、节能情景、低碳情景和粗放情景下，黄河流域内蒙古段将分别于2040年、2035年、2030年和2050年实现碳达峰，峰值碳排放量分别为12209万t、11213万t、9784万t和17635万t；②在IPCC RCP2.6和RCP6.0气候变化情景下，黄河流域内蒙古段的陆地生态系统整体分别呈现出碳汇和碳源的不同效应，净初级生产力分别为1533万t和-506万t；③综合能源消费碳排放和碳汇水平，在RCP2.6气候情景下，若碳排放选取基准、节能、低碳和粗放情景，则2060年黄河流域内蒙古段分别可实现碳中和进程的18.42%、22.37%、34.46%和9.90%；在RCP6.0气候情景下，由于研究区陆地生态系统呈现出碳源效应，因此难以对碳中和进程的推进做出贡献。可见，对于黄河流域内蒙古段而言，需要科学制订碳达峰、碳中和目标实现时间，未来要更进一步保护重要碳汇生态系统，提升固碳增汇能力；调整能源消费结构，增加可再生能源发展规划指标；构建碳排放权交易市场，促进碳指标流动；制定土地利用碳排放标准，优化国土空间格局。 Abstract:Based on the background of global climate governance and the important position of the Yellow River Basin in the construction of ecological civilization in China, taking the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin as an example, this paper uses the improved IPAT model and Integrated Ecosystem Simulator (IBIS) to predict the change trend and peak of carbon emission in the study area from 2018 to 2060 under different scenarios. At the same time, the realization degree of carbon neutrality in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin in 2060 is also analyzed, combined with the simulation of carbon sink capacity. The results show that:(1) under the baseline scenario, energy-saving scenario, low-carbon scenario and extensive scenario, the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin will reach the peak of carbon emission in 2040, 2035, 2030 and 2050, with the peak carbon emissions of 122.09 million tons, 112.13 million tons, 97.84 million tons, and 176.35 million tons, respectively. (2) Under the IPCC RCP2.6 climate change scenario, the terrestrial ecosystem in the Inner Mongolian section of the Yellow River Basin shows a carbon sink effect, with the net primary productivity of 15.33 million tons. While under the RCP6.0 scenario, the terrestrial ecosystem presents a carbon source effect, with the net primary productivity of -5.06 million tons. (3) Considering carbon emission from energy consumption and carbon sink level comprehensively, under the RCP2.6 climate change scenario, the Mongolian section of the Yellow River Basin could achieve 18.42%, 22.37%, 34.46% and 9.90% of the carbon neutrality process in 2060 respectively, if the baseline, energy-saving, low-carbon and extensive scenarios are selected for carbon emission. While under the RCP6.0 climate scenario, it is difficult for the terrestrial ecosystem in the study area to contribute to the advancement of carbon neutrality because it appears as a carbon source. Therefore, for the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin, it is necessary to scientifically formulate the time for the realization of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. In the future, we will do more to protect important carbon sink ecosystems and enhance the capacity of carbon sequestration and carbon sink increase; to adjust energy consumption structure and increase the planning targets of renewable energy development; to establish carbon emission trading market and promote the flow of carbon indicators; to formulate the standards for carbon emissions from land use and improve the patterns of the territorial spatial. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献