Изменение отраслевой структуры занятости в Казахстане: тенденции и перспективы

Abstract

The subject of the study is the processes of changing the sectoral structure of employment in Kazakhstan. The purpose of the work is to analyze these changes and forecast the structure of employment by economic activity in the medium term. The relevance of the study is due to the need to understand the intensive dynamics of the sectoral structure of employment and predict its changes under the influence of many different factors. The scientific novelty consists in identifying a weak relationship between changes in the structure of employment and the economic structure in Kazakhstan, which allows forecasting employment based on extrapolation of the prevailing trends. The research methods are: dynamic series analysis, comparative analysis, deduction, modeling. In the course of the study, the author obtained the following results: a weak relationship between changes in the structure of employment by economic activity and the structure of Kazakhstan's GDP was revealed; the main trends of changes in the share of employment of the main types of economic activity are revealed; a forecast assessment of the structure of employment by economic activity in the medium term is given. The author draws conclusions about a further reduction in the aggregate share of employment in the sectors of production of goods and an increase in employment in the service sector; about the outstripping growth of employment in activities with predominantly government financing; about the lagging growth of employment in the manufacturing industry and the continued decline in employment in agriculture in Kazakhstan.