Комплексы региональной безопасности (Опыт пространственного автокорреляционного и кластерного анализа)

Abstract

Received 23.03.2020. Security studies are going through a new stage of development. The 20th century was marked by scientific discussions about globalization itself and its possible impact on international security, the need to adjust concepts and methodologies. Many modern challenges are a direct consequence of increased global interdependence. At the same time, global attention is shifting towards regions, because the processes originating there can explain and determine the structure of international security. In turn, it is vital to adopt the knowledge and methodology of regional studies and political geography to avoid the “territorial trap”. In our opinion, international studies are still missing the importance of spatiality and its influence on the world political system. Regardless the importance of geographical factor and the fact that in some way it determines the vector of the world political system development, spatiality is often overlooked. “Thinking in the space” is a skill necessary for any researcher. Spatiality is not just a set of geographical characteristics, but something more integral. Therefore, to understand international security and prospects for its further development, we need a comprehensive approach taking a wide range of factors into account. Moreover, an important problem of modern international security is the lack of comprehensive security studies at the global level that take into account the factor of space and regionalization. The research identifies Regional Security Complexes using cluster analysis of k-means. A spatial autocorrelation analysis is used to justify found systems, which consider the mutual influence of countries on each other. In a nutshell, it can explain regionalization of international security and the role of spatial factor in this process, create methodological framework for further analysis of Regional Security Complexes. Acknowledgements. The article has been supported by the grant of the IIS MGIMO No. 1921-01-09 “Geopolitical Atlas of the Modern World: Cartograms Modelling, Multidimensional Scaling and Determination of Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation in World Politics”.