豪雪地帯縁近集落の定住動向に関する研究 １９７０年代の集落戸数の変動とその要因

Abstract

To clarify the factors of recent population change in depopulated rural settlements of Japan, this paper first defines 1, 301 marginal remote villages from all agricultural settlements listed in the 1970 agricultural census, in the snowy area of 8 prefectures of Tohoku and Hokuriku districts. Second, it reveals some characteristics of the changing tendency in number of households during the 1970s and their general factors by using the methodology of Hayashi's quantum theory I and Automatic Interaction Detector (AID) . Two groups of particular settlements, that have largest plus or minus values of residuals about the estimation of households number by quantum theory I are then classified as “surviving group” and “declining group” respectively. Finally, factors that effect the formation of large residuals of particular settlements are analyzed. As a consequence, following findings are obtained.Snow depth and the number of days of social isolation with snow strongly affected households' increase/decrease status of marginal mountain villages belonging to the snowy area during the 1970s. Moreover, economic conditions related to family farm management and labor for non-agricultural sector, and location of villages in relation with the accessibility for regional facilities are also found to be important factors.Agricultural and transportational conditions are frequently mentioned as the reason of peculiar increase/decrease status of large residual villages by municipal officials answered to a postal inquiry. In “surviving group”, a subjective factor namely a solidity of unity and cooperation in a community is most frequently pointed out. Implementation of regional or tourist development is also frequently suggested as a concrete factor of the peculiarity of “surviving group”.A large variance which may not be perfectly explained with a consideration of general factors is found in the trend of marginal mountain villages in the snowy area. The variance may reflect some subjective factors of village inhabitants. Possibilities of successful survival of marginal villages should remain within this range of the variance.