Abstract
Розбалансована фіскальна політика призводить до кризи суверенного боргу, який в довгострокові перспективі створює тиск на економіку країни. Аналіз динаміки зростання пенсійних витрат та прогнозних демографічних показників, підтверджує вплив старіння населення на динаміку стійкості державних фінансів України. В результаті розрахунків, індикатор S1 в 2021 р. складе 7,8, що характеризує критично високий ступінь ризику стану державних фінансів. Найбільший вплив чинить фактор А (5,091% ВВП), відображаючи рівень державного боргу та структурного дефіциту. Фактором стабілізації державних фінансів в середньострокові перспективі розглядається оптимізація пенсійних витрат.
Highlights
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS WITHIN MEDIUM TERM IN UKRAINE Abstract
The current economic situation in Ukraine determines the need for a significant focus on issues of sustainable economic growth, measures to return to the macroeconomic parameters that were before modern structural crisis
Problems such as deteriorating fiscal positions of Ukraine and the rapid increase in public debt, together with increased budgetary pressures pose acute authorities the issue of public finances sustainability, as for Ukraine is very important at this stage to be able to develop appropriate measures
Summary
FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS WITHIN MEDIUM TERM IN UKRAINE Abstract. Unbalanced fiscal policy leads to a crisis of sovereign debt, which subsequently has a long pressure on the economy. The paper studied the sustainability of public finances in the medium term Ukraine using S1 fiscal sustainability indicator. The current economic situation in Ukraine determines the need for a significant focus on issues of sustainable economic growth, measures to return to the macroeconomic parameters that were before modern structural crisis. Problems such as deteriorating fiscal positions of Ukraine and the rapid increase in public debt, together with increased budgetary pressures pose acute authorities the issue of public finances sustainability, as for Ukraine is very important at this stage to be able to develop appropriate measures. The public finance system needs research in the short and medium term periods
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