Стан та перспективи розвитку аграрного виробництва в Лісостепу в умовах змін клімату

Abstract

The purpose. To analyze on an instance of administrative area typical for Forest-steppe features of modern most spread practice of agrarian production, to justify directions of interbranch optimization with the purpose of cardinal heightening profitableness of industrial activity. Methods. Assessment of changes of agrometeorological resources of terrain was realized by method of mathematical-statistical analysis, data of Goskomstat was treated by methods of system generalization, correlation, economic, settlement-relative analysis. Study of perspective directions of evolution of agrarian production was realized by method of multivariate imitative computer simulation. Results. As a result of climatic changes the forest-steppe part of Kiev area has passed from zone of sufficient into zone of insufficient humidification with deficiency of annual water balance — 100 mm. Average for 8 years productivity of grain grains makes 3–4 t/hectare, corn for grain — 9, soya bean, sunflower, winter rape and buckwheat — 2, sugar beets — 52 t/hectare with fluctuation on years 20–60%. Correlation between indexes of the cost price, the price of implementation and productivity of the crops, specifying on presence of the factors bounding net profit at a certain level are established. Profitableness on an average on years to the level for corn for grain makes 305 c.u./hectare, buckwheat — 243, sunflower — 235, winter rape — 199, sugar beets — 193, soya bean — 173, pease — 100, cereal grains — 60–115 c.u./hectare. The highest net profit for 1 hectare of arable land in the area for 8 years attained 324 c.u./hectare, the lowest — 45 c.u./hectare with an average on years index of 189 c.u./hectare and fluctuation concerning it of 42%. To cardinally raise economic efficiency of agrarian production in the area is possible by development of its branch structure on biopower basis. At this situation in uniform technological complex for 1 hectare of arable land they may produce 2 t of vegetable products, 0,8 — sugar, 0,2 — vegetable oil, 0,3 — fibers, 1 t — meat-and-milk products, 1,3 thousand m3 — gas-methane. It also leads to creation of closed cycle of macro- and microelements with cutting of net cost of production on 50% and heightening of the net profit up to 8 thousand in c.u./hectare. Conclusions. As a result of climatic changes in forest-steppe part of Kiev area aside aggravation of conditions of humidification they registered fluctuation in productivity of cultivated crops on 20–60% from average. Fluctuation of net profit in administrative area typical for region for 8 years made 45–324 c.u./hectare with average on years index of 189 c.u./hectare. Cardinal heightening of profitableness of plowlands of the area up to the level of 8 thousand c.u./hectare may be ensured with transition to principles of biopower agrarian production by building association of agricultural factories and engaging of investment resources.