ОЦЕНКА АТМОСФЕРНОЙ ЭМИССИИ ПАРНИКОВЫХ ГАЗОВ ОТ МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫХ ПЕРЕВОЗОК ИЗ РОССИИ ВОЗДУШНЫМ И ВОДНЫМ ТРАНСПОРТОМ

Abstract

The current intensive development of shipping and aviation is accompanied by an increase in anthropogenic impact on the environment and climate. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) assessments, greenhouse gas emissions from international air and sea traffic are expected to increase by 2-3 times by 2050. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions from international aviation and navigation from the territory of Russia for the period of 1990-2018 were estimated, the dynamics and the main drivers of emissions changes are analyzed, international comparisons are provided. The calculation was made in accordance with the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based on the data from the Federal Air Transport Agency and IAA «Port News». Analysis of historical trends shows that greenhouse gas emissions dynamics during the reporting period for international sea and air shippingis almost the same. In 2018, the total emission of CO2, СH4 and N2O from international transport from the territory of Russia amounted to 47.0 million tons of CO2-equivalent, which is 2.7 times higher than in 1990. Carbon dioxide dominates in the component composition of the emissions, its share in the total emission amounted to 99.5%. Contributions of methane and nitrous oxide emissions were 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Shipping makes a major contribution to emissions. Russia's share of worldwide carbon dioxide emission from international water and aviation transport does not exceed 3.5%.Emissions from aviation and shipping have been largely driven by economy and international trade. Greenhouse gases emissions from international aviation and maritime transport are expected to decrease in the coming years related to IMO's banon high-sulfur fuel use and reduction of international air and sea traffic in the light of the spread of the coronavirus in 2020.