СЦЕНАРИИ РАЗВИТИЯ МИРОВОЙ ВАЛЮТНО-ФИНАНСОВОЙ СИСТЕМЫ: ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ И РИСКИ ДЛЯ РОССИИ

Abstract

The fundamental re-organization of the world monetary and financial system, currently based on the US dollar, is necessary prerequisite for creating conditions for stable, sustainable and balanced growth of the world economy. Using the method of scenario analysis, the authors consider four possible options for long-term development of the world monetary and financial system. Their implementation depends on prevailing expectations in the society regarding the strengthening or weakening of regulation of monetary relations, the concentration or dispersion of control over monetary authorities. The first scenario “supranational money” involves the introduction of a global reserve currency operated beyond the jurisdiction of any particular country. This scenario is based on the transformation of the IMF into a bank of central banks, conversion of SDRs into a systemic standard of value, introduction of symmetric rights and obligations between creditors and debtors to finance payment imbalances, transition to real rather than nominal fixed exchange rates, re-direction of virtual capital flows to priority service of real sector of the economy, creating a liquid market for SDR-denominated bonds. The analysis of viability of “gold re-monetization” scenario stems from comparison of the views of leading American economists on the prospects of restoring various forms of the gold standard – from the classical one with reestablishing of the monetary functions of gold to the quasi-golden variant realized through a 100% bank reserve system. In “monetary polycentrism” scenario the attention is drawn to the fact that introduction of the Euro failed to ensure financial sovereignty of the member countries of the Eurozone and to prevent economic destabilization of the European economic and monetary union. It is emphasized that the federalization of Europe in the banking, budgetary, fiscal and political spheres as well as intensive internationalization of Renminbi could serve as the basis for creating real alternatives to US dollar hegemony in the world, followed by the formation of currency blocks in Eurasia with the participation of Russia and China. In “digital currency” scenario the authors develop the hypothesis of using crypto currency (bitcoin and its analogues) for expanding the virtual market space in order to form a global financial cybernetic system that is not controlled by state organizations and transnational corporations. The authors come to the conclusion that Russia needs to seriously prepare for implementation of all analyzed scenarios while relying on its own historic experience in creating alternative international trading and monetary system.