ЕКОНОМЕТРИЧНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ДИНАМІКИ ТУРИСТИЧНИХ ПОТОКІВ

Abstract

Urgency of the research. Tourism is one of perspective economic development directions of Ukraine. The importance of studying the tourism activities, in particular the dynamics of tourist flows, based on econometric analysis, is determined by international scientific experience and obtaining statistically reliable results in stochastic economic conditions. Target setting. The majority of scientific studies, which examine the tourism subjects' activities, have a descriptive character therefore the evaluation of the dynamic indicators of tourism activity on the basis of econometric models is appropriate at the current development stage. Relevant scientific research and issues analysis. Scientific works of such foreign and Ukrainian scientists such as N. Dritsakis, S. Athanasiadis, L. Botti, B. Solonandrasana, H. Karmelyuk, O. Kalchenko, R. Balashova, L. Ivchenko and others are dedicated to the economic and mathematical analysis and modelling of the activities of tourism sector. Uninvestigated parts of general matters defining. Scientific researches on tourism industry status and dynamics in Ukraine are characterized by insufficient use of econometric methods and models. Therefore, it is feasible to study international scientific advances in tourism industry by the econometric modelling means. Research objective. This article aims to explore the tourist flows dynamics in Ukraine and to identify the factors influencing their change using econometric methods and models. Statement of basic materials. The dynamics of tourist flows indicators in Ukraine is analysed. The influence of financial and economic and also social and economic factors on the development of tourist flows based on correlation and regression analysis is investigated. Conclusions. The models of tourist flows dynamics ob-tained can have practical applications for prediction the directions for development of the tourism industry enterprises, as well as tourist flows forecasting.