МОДЕЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ ПРОДУКТИВНОСТИ ЕЛОВЫХ НАСАЖДЕНИЙ В ЗАВИСИМОСТИ ОТ СХЕМЫ ПОСАДКИ И ИНТЕНСИВНОСТИ ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЯ СЛУЧАЙНЫХ ВНЕШНИХ ФАКТОРОВ

Abstract

With rational forestry management, it is created special artificial forest plantations of high productivity for technically valuable species allowing the largest supply of grown wood. One of the ways to increase the supply of wood per unit of forest area is to regulate the initial density and planting pattern of trees. Using simulation methods, it is shown that in the absence of external influences, a checkerboard planting pattern is an optimal one providing a larger supply of wood as compared to a rectangular pattern. In real conditions, there are risks of dying off for individual trees due to random external factors like gusts of wind and phytophages. Therefore, in real life the supply of wood grown under such optimal planting schemes would be significantly lower as compared to the calculated values obtained. In this regard, there arise problems aimed at studying the plantings productivity dependent on the planting pattern and the intensity of tree death during the forest stand growth as a result of the random external factors influence. To solve these problems, we used a simulation model of tree communities dynamics, which takes into account the spatial location of each tree, in this way making it easy to simulate various forest planting schemes and remove some trees at any step of modeling. As a result of the computational experiments, the optimal values of spruce plantations initial density have been defined for different planting schemes, dependent on the intensity of the external factors influence. It is shown that at a certain intensity of the external factors impact, the maximum timber stock does not depend on the planting scheme, but is determined by the initial density of the forest stand.When the impact intensity increases,, the planting density also needs to be increased, in order to obtain the maximum reserve.