Эпохальные открытия Николая Кондратьева и их место в современной экономической науке

Abstract

The article describes 130th years since the birth of outstanding Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev (1892–1938) and the 100th anniversary of the publication of his main scientific work “World Economy and its conjunctures ...”. The article presents three his great discoveries: the long waves of innovation in economic growth ranging from forty to sixty years; the second, the dynamism and instability of the market economy, which was explained only later, at the end of the 20th century, by synergistic economics; and the third, the need for the government’s active response to crises in economy by stimulating the self-regulation mechanisms inherent in market relationships. Kondratiev’s theory predated Keynesianism, which appeared during the Great Depression in the 1930s. The long wave theory was taken further by Joseph A. Schumpeter in his famous theory of economic development in the 1930s. In addition, the article outlines the prospects of development of the ‘Schumpeterian synthesis’ combining contemporary economic theory with Kondratiev– Schumpeter’s theory of innovative cyclical economic development. The key principles of the long-term forecasting of socio-economic development from the perspective of Kondratiev’s long wave theory are highlighted. The study proposes an information model of technological progress suitable for long-term forecasting of economic and technological development in the 21st century. The most suitable modes of production of technological information for the development of the information (1982–2018) and digital (2018–2050) economies are described. A special focus is made on the case of the US economic development. Forecasts are calculated to describe the future trajectories of technological progress and economic growth in the digital era (2018–2042) in the upward phase of the 6th K-wave.