트럼프의 경제정책과 러시아 경제

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the impact of the Trump administrationʹs economic policy(Trumponomics) on the Russian economy. Trumpʹs “America First” plan focuses on trade protectionism, expansionary fiscal policy, energy policy, and monetary policy. First, trade protectionism will not have a significant impact on Russian foreign trade. Most of all, trade ties between the U.S. and Russia are minuscule: U.S. goods exports to Russia totaled just $5.8 billion in 2016, equivalent to less than 0.4% of U.S. exports to world. U.S. goods imports from Russia totaled $15.3 billion, just under 0.7% of U.S. imports from world. There is no free trade agreement between the United States and Russia. Second, the expansionary fiscal policy is unlikely to have a negative impact on the Russian economy as it is unclear whether it will be implemented or not, and that it is creating jobs and economic growth in the United States. Third, US Federal Reserveʹs interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction will accelerate capital outflows in Russia, which will have a significant impact on the russian foreign exchange market Fourth, Trump’s Energy Dominance policy in global energy production will have a considerable negative impact on the Russian economy, which is highly dependent on energy resources. The increase in of shale oil production in the United States will lead to a fall in international oil prices. The decline in oil prices will lead to a reduction in export income, a decrease in financial revenues, and an increase in uncertainty and volatility in the Russian economy by encouraging foreign exchange market instability.