Сравнительно-исторический анализ в прогнозировании революций

Abstract

The article considers the problem of forecasting revolutions – one of the main issues raised in social sciences whose solution meets objective and subjective difficulties. Researchers radically diverge in the possibility of predicting revolutions, as well as in the question of whether revolutions have a future or the era of revolutions has passed. An opportunity to predict revolution is important, but most often in forecasts this socio-political phenomenon is substituted for attempts of predicting explosions of social protest in its mass and radical forms which can lead to a change of power. The analysis of revolutions allows, with a huge share of probability, concluding that revolutions have a chance to occur where they never occurred, except for specific cases when certain countries already avoided revolutions. To reach the aim, the author offers a combination of two approaches: (1) a comparative-historical analysis of revolutions as a socio-political phenomenon of the modern era and (2) a method of analogies – if a phenomenon occurs under certain conditions in one country or group of the countries, then this phenomenon, most likely, will also happen in other countries with similar conditions. To solve the problem, the author considers exclusively demonstrations of the phenomenon of revolutions for the period of modern and contemporary history, since forecasting is based on methods of comparative historical analysis and analogies and the article does not set historical and philosophical problems about the possibility in the future of revolutionary phenomena similar to those that took place in antiquity, or to communist revolutions. In the author’s opinion, the revolution as a process consists of three components: (1) social protest in mass and radical forms; (2) coup d’état (change of political power); (3) reforms in the state (significant changes in the system). In the absence of one of the components, the term “revolution” is not applicable. Violation of this rule leads to the blurring of the boundaries of the phenomenon and the dragging into it of other political and socio-political phenomena (coups, reforms, mass protests, etc.). A comparative analysis of more than sixty revolutions identifies two types by external characteristics (algorithm and consequences): basic and corrective (including six models of the revolution algorithm, three in each form). Then the author analyzes options for a norevolution path for various states. This approach allowed the following conclusions. (1) For the majority of the countries, the era of revolutions has come to an end. (2) A large number of the countries of Africa and some countries of Asia have a forthcoming long civilization period before conditions for the revolutions of the modern era mature. (3) In the short and medium terms, a number of countries have prospects of revolutions. At the same time, in connection with globalization and internationalization of the ideas and technologies, these countries can undergo necessary transitions in the evolutionary way through reforms, avoiding revolutionary explosions.