Предиктивная аналитика в прогностической деятельности полиции современных государств

Abstract

The relevance of the topic of the study is due to the need to find an optimal model of police activity that meets the requirements and challenges of the present. The transformation of the public organization requires the comprehension of the current situation, new forms of theorizing and the development of new conceptual ideas. The growing importance of police systems in the context of globalization has been determined by a variety of law enforcement practices that requires critical analysis. A historiographic analysis of the problem of the use of predictive analytics in police activities showed that such experience from the theoretical and legal position was not reflected in the researches of Russian scientists. The object of the study was the police systems of foreign countries, where the predictive analytics became widespread and was the basis of the work of the police bodies. Predictive analytics (software that allows to predict crime) and the possibilities of its use in police activities is the subject of the research. A legal analysis of prognostic police activity, on the basis of which a new law enforcement model was developed, which already confirmed its effectiveness in the US, Great Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, China was the purpose of the research. The methodology of the study was drawn up by the scientific principles of dialectics, historicism and objectivity, based on the recognition of the variability in the ways of implementing the law enforcement function of the state in various national political and legal systems, as well as general scientific methods: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analogue method, ascent from abstract to concrete, and private-scientific methods: legal comparativeness, formal-legal (dogmatic), methods of systemic and structural-functional analysis, methods of theoretical modeling and scientific forecasting. In the course of the research, the author have concluded that the use of predictive analytics in the police activity is a perspective direction of work, during which individuals and places with an increased risk of crime can be identified. Prognostic activity does not replace traditional methods and directions of police work, but strengthens them by applying advanced statistical models and algorithms with minimal use of budgetary funds. The police’s prognostic activity requires a new way of thinking, a high level of automation, and the expansion of technological capabilities of mass observation. Only under such conditions it is possible to create a police system that is able to meet the modern needs of society and effectively fulfill its tasks.