Abstract
본 연구에서는 댐 용수공급능력에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 요인분석 통계기법을 사용하여 추출하였으며, 그 결과를 이용하여 댐 용수공급능력 추정을 위한 다중회귀모형을 개발하였다. 21개 다목적댐과 12개 생공용수전용댐을 대상으로 하였으며, 다목적댐과 생공용수전용댐으로 구분하여 요인분석을 수행하였다. 댐 용수공급능력에 영향을 미치는 변수로 유역면적, 유입량, 유효저수량, 생공용수량 등급, 농업용수량 등급, 하천유지유량 등급, 하천관리 등급, 평균강우량 등급을 선정하였다. 변수들의 상관계수 행렬점검, Bartlett의 구형성 점검, KMO 표본적합도 점검을 실시하여 변수들의 요인분석에 대한 적합성을 확인하였다. 변수들은 다목적댐의 경우 3개 요인, 생공용수전용댐의 경우 2개 요인으로 분류되었으며, 요인들을 Varimax법을 사용하여 회전시켰다. 요인분석 결과는 댐 용수공급능력에 영향을 미치는 변수들이 합리적으로 선정되었고, 이들이 요인으로 적절하게 분류되었음을 보여주었다. 요인점수를 설명변수로 사용하여 연간용수공급량을 추정할 수 있는 다중회귀모형을 개발하였으며, 개발된 모형의 정확성을 평가하고 적용방법을 제시하였다. 결론적으로 댐 용수공급능력에 영향을 미치는 것으로 파악된 변수 및 요인은 댐 계획 및 설계에 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다. In this study, factors that influence water supply capacities of dams are extracted using factor analysis, and multiple regression equations for estimating water supply capacities of dams are developed using the analysis results. Twenty-one multi-purpose dams and twelve Municipal and Industrial (M&I) water supply dams are selected for case studies, and eight variables influencing water supply capacities of dams, namely: watershed area, inflow, effective reservoir storage, grade on amount of M&I water supply, grade on amount of agricultural water supply, grade on amount of in-stream flow supply, grade on river administration, and grade on average rainfall, are determined. Two case studies for multi-purpose dams and M&I water supply dams are performed, employing factor analysis, respectively. For the two cases, preliminary tests, such as reviewing matrix of correlation coefficient, Bartlett's test of sphericity, and Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) test, are conducted to evaluate the suitability of the variables for factor analysis. In case of multi-purpose dams, variables are grouped into three factors; M&I water supply dams, two factors. The factors are rotated using Varimax method, and then factor loading of each variable is computed. The results show that the variables influencing water supply capacities of dams are reasonably selected and appropriately grouped into factors. In addition, multiple regression equations for predicting the amounts of annual water supply of dams are established using the factor scores as explanatory variables, it is identified that the models' accuracies are high, and their applications to determining effective storage capacity of a dam during dam planning and design steps are presented. Consequently, it is thought that the variables and factors are useful for dam planning and dam design.
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