시계열 자료를 이용한 등유수요함수 추정

Abstract

This paper attempts to estimate the kerosene demand function in Korea over the period 1981-2012. As the kerosene demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's kerosene consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as kerosene price and forecasting the demand for kerosene. We apply least absolute deviations and least median squares estimation methods as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the kerosene demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the kerosene demand are estimated to be -0.468 and 0.409, respectively. They are statisitically significant at the 1% level. The short-run price and income elasticities portray that demand for kerosene is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the kerosene is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the kerosene demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change. However, long-run price and income elasticities reveal that the demand for kerosene is price- and income-elastic in the long-run.