현금흐름 기반 동태적 주택시장 모형의 구조와 시사점

Abstract

It is not appropriate to apply the demand/supply approach to the housing market and it causes many problems. Unlike the premise of demand/supply approach, transactions of existing houses account for the majority of the domestic housing market, and transactions of houses with 'jeonse' are also significant. In this paper, an analysis based on cash flow is proposed as an alternative housing market analysis method. According to this, the house price is determined at the point where the amount of cash payment and the amount of cash receipt match for the sale in the period, and changes when a difference occurs between the amounts. As a result of constructing and simulating a dynamic model for housing market based on cash flow, it was estimated that more than half of the rise in Korean housing prices since 2000 was due to the rise in 'jeonse' prices, and the rest were due to the higher ratio of additional procurement cash than the equilibrium value. According to the cash flow-based analysis, heavy comprehensive real estate tax and transfer tax for multiple homeowners, house supply through the development of new cities and the unitary deregulation of reconstruction can also lead to a rise in housing prices, contrary to policy intentions. The cash flow-based dynamic market model presented in this paper can be expanded throughout the resell market where used goods with scarcity are traded