ОКЕАНИЧЕСКИЙ ФАКТОР МУЛЬТИДЕКАДНОЙ ИЗМЕНЧИВОСТИ СОВРЕМЕННОГО КЛИМАТА И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ЕЕ МОНИТОРИНГА

Abstract

Multi-decadal variability of the modem climate (fluctuations of 50-70 years) is one of the most urgent current problems in the earth Sciences. The actual oscillation consists of two phases, each of which is 25-35 years: the phase when the upper active layer (UAL) of the world ocean, giving sensitive and latent heat to the atmosphere, makes a kind of its thermal discharge, and the phase of a continental climate, when the ocean UAL accumulates heat, seeking to restore its initial state. There is reason to believe that the variability under consideration reflects the internal dynamics of the ocean-atmosphere-continent climate system. The presence of planetary structures in the GAO atmosphere (global atmospheric oscillation) and in the MOSTOK ocean (multi-decadal oscillation of ocean heat content) allows us to understand the reproduction of the observed rhythm of the climate system. The most sensitive to the climate system are changes in the phases of climate, as a result of which there are sudden qualitative shifts, accompanied by a certain restructuring of the General circulation of the ocean and the atmosphere. So in the ocean, when the climate phase changes, either deep convection intensifies (with the thermal unloading of the ocean UAL), or it weakens, and possibly stops (with the accumulation of heat of the UAL). In the atmosphere of the changing phases of a climate impact on monsoon circulation: a more continental climate phase corresponds to a strengthening of the monsoon circulation with all accompanying this process features. The forecast of climate phase changes is therefore important for the economic, social and political life of society. In turn, the quality of the forecast is associated with an understanding of the nature of the observed variability and the representation of the mechanism of this phenomenon. In the work for some areas of the world ocean the evolution of the thermal structure of the UAL with the dynamics of the steric mode of oscillations of the level determined by satellite altimetric observations is compared. It was found that the sea level rise between the time phases of 1993-1999 and 2000-2015 it was 4-6 cm and corresponded to the increase in the level that would occur with the observed increases in the heat content of the ocean UAL. It is concluded that on inter-decadal time scales, along with ocean surface temperature (SST) data, altimetric satellite observations can be used in the future to identify regional sources and heat sinks in the ocean.