북한의 권력세습과 재연된 후계자 논쟁

Abstract

North Korea maintains its regime through a three-generation hereditary succession. During the Kim Jong-il era, there was an academic debate over who would become the successor. At that time, Kim Jong-nam and Kim Jong-chul were considered as strong candidates, and Kim Jong-un was not in the spotlight as a potential successor. However, Kim Jong-un is currently ruling North Korea as Kim Jong-il's successor. In November 2022, the succession debate was rekindled when Kim Jong-un publicly introduced his daughter. The renewed debate began with claims that Kim Jong-un's daughter, Kim Ju-ae, had been designated as the successor. The discussions among researchers regarding Kim Ju-ae are inherently exhaustive due to limited information and resources. Therefore, it is important to analyze the implications of Kim Ju-ae's emergence for both South and North Korea, and to consider the future of North Korea under a potential fourth-generation succession. It is likely that Kim Jong-un will implement a fourth-generation succession, and we may continue to face a nuclear-armed North Korea in the future. Thus, the (south korea)government should take action to prevent Kim Jong-un's successor from inheriting nuclear weapons. Additionally, for a research project, it is necessary to discuss the fourth-generation succession and the emergence of Kim Ju-ae based on data obtained from in-depth interviews with North Korean refugees who witnessed her emergence. In conclusion, in the absence of widely accepted information and data, the succession debate is meaningless. At present, it is advisable to focus on the significance of the fourth-generation succession itself, rather than on a specific individual.