Abstract
The main purpose of the article is to analyze the relationship between the main demographic indicators and economic development. A retrospective analysis of national goals and objectives set in official documents on the growth of life expectancy, the total fertility rate and the well-being of the population is also carried out. A sharp decline in life expectancy in 2020 and a reduction in funding for the national project «Health» are assessed as the beginning of a new demographic crisis in Russia, which occurs along with another decrease in real incomes of the population, and in eighteen constituent regions of the Russian Federation, even with a decrease in nominal incomes. Analyzing the dynamics of per capita incomes in Russian regions, the author concludes about their polarization, since 86% of regions have incomes below the national average. The article also includes the fact that in 19 national republics of the Russian Federation out of 21 the average per capita income is lower than the average for Russia as a clearly negative characteristic of the regional level of income. The dynamics of incomes in the republics of the North Caucasus, with the exception of Ingushetia, had a particularly expressed negative character. In this regard, the decline in the number of poor people in the crisis year of 2020 was questioned according to official statistics, and the author concludes that there is a high likelihood of an increase in poverty and extreme poverty in the near future.
Highlights
A retrospective analysis of national goals and objectives set in official documents on the growth of life expectancy, the total fertility rate and the well-being of the population is carried out
A sharp decline in life expectancy in 2020 and a reduction in funding for the national project «Health» are assessed as the beginning of a new demographic crisis in Russia, which occurs along with another decrease in real incomes of the population, and in eighteen constituent regions of the Russian Federation, even with a decrease in nominal incomes
Analyzing the dynamics of per capita incomes in Russian regions, the author concludes about their polarization, since 86% of regions have incomes below the national average
Summary
«открыл» очередной этап снижения ожидаемой продолжительности жизни населения России, как это уже бывало в 1970-х –начале 1980-х гг. Единственная возможность такой динамики – более высокие темпы роста доходов самых бедных (нижние по доходам 10 процентов населения) по сравнению со средними темпами роста, но это для страны с показателем коэффициента Джини выше 0,4 явление маловероятное, т.к. Только 12 регионов России имеют более высокий доход, чем среднероссийский показатель, а 73 региона, или 86% всех субъектов федерации имеют доход ниже среднего, что похоже уже не на дифференциацию территорий, а на их поляризацию: образовались две противоположные группы, сближение которых до обозначенного срока достижения национальных целей в 2030 г. Можно отметить такую положительную тенденцию, как реальный рост среднедушевых доходов в таких бедных республиках России, как Алтай, Тыва, Хакасия, где доходы составляли всего лишь 57%, 47% и 64% среднероссийских (2019 г.), а в 2020 г. Таблица 1 Топ-10 субъектов РФ с наибольшим среднедушевым доходом в 2019 г
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