АНАЛІЗ ТА МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ВПЛИВУ ІНВЕСТИЦІЙНИХ ВКЛАДЕНЬ НА РОЗВИТОК ЕКОНОМІКИ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

Recently, the investment sphere has become an increasingly relevant topic for many countries of the world. The limited ability of the state to invest in its own economy determines the search for external sources of financing - foreign direct investment. Implementation of the investment strategy of economic growth of any country requires constant monitoring of the state and development prospects of the investment sphere. A real display of the actual results of the analysis of investment deposits contributes to a clear understanding of the features, problems and prospects for the development of the investment process. This is essential for the development of timely and effective country-level solutions. The article is devoted to modeling the impact of investment in the country's economy, especially with the effect of delay. The article analyzes the modern dynamics of investment indicators, the structure of funding sources and highlights the prospects for development. The role of the state through budgetary investments in the growth of the country's economy beyond the boundary threshold of A. Fuente, which is at a two percent level of the country's GDP, has been investigated. The dynamics of the rate of change in the annual GDP and the share of state financing of capital investments in Ukraine is analyzed. The analysis of investment security by basic indicators has been carried out. The percentage ratio between the volume of investments to GDP was determined and analyzed (the threshold value of the indicator is not less than 25%). The dynamics of foreign direct investment (cumulative growth) in Ukraine is approximated by a fourth-degree polynomial. The relationship between the volume of exports and imports of foreign direct investment and the growth rate of the country's economy, namely GDP, has been determined. A model is built with the effect of saturation of the dependence of GDP on foreign investment by the Koyck method. The constructed multivariate and lagged models can be used in assessing and forecasting the volume of FDI and GDP in Ukraine for the future. The coefficients of the lagged model were calculated, which confirmed the hypothesis of Butnik O.M. about the slowdown, attenuation of the pace of economic development without external foreign investment (analogy with a closed oscillating circuit).