Abstract
In the article the authors developed a modeling technique to achieve the planned and target values of indicators by monitoring the process of implementation of the "strategy of social and economic development of the Voronezh region", including identifying risks to their achievement by 2018, and 2020. The author's technique reflects the modeling of the rate of achievement of target indicators of social and economic development of the region. In each period, this method shows the ratio of planned and actual speeds. The actual speed may not be sufficient to achieve the goal that requires new organizational and resource decisions. The actual speed may be higher than projected, which requires examination and evaluation of the grounds for such advance to use it to accelerate social and economic development of the Voronezh region. The modeling technique is one of the key tools to bridge the "strategic gap" between the goals and practice of territorial administration. Its results are claimed in valid correction of values and strategic goals, choice (upgrading) measures to achieve them. The article proposes to monitor planned and actual values of target indicators in several stages, including calculation of the level of achievement of planned values of target indicators in the reporting period; identification of risks of not achieving target values of indicators by 2018; identifying risks of not achieving target values of indicators by 2020; analysis of internal and external risks of not achieving target values of indicators by 2018; analysis of internal and external risks of not achieving target values of indicators by 2020. The proposed method will contribute to more accurate analysis of labour productivity in the region.
Highlights
Flects the modeling of the rate of achievement of target indicators of social and economic development of the region
Its results are claimed in valid correction of values and strategic goals, choice measures to achieve them
The proposed method will contribute to more accurate analysis of labour productivity in the region
Summary
Где П2015 – фактическое значение целевого индикатора в отчетном периоде (2015 год); ПП,2015 – прогнозное значение целевого индикатора в отчетном периоде (2015 год); б) в отношении целевых индикаторов, меньшее значение которых отражает лучший результат, по формуле 2: ПП ,2015 П2015. Значения индикатора от планового значения отрицателен (ΔIп < 0), существует риск недостижения стратегических целей, возникает угроза реализации стратегического плана. В показанных на рисунке примерах со скоростью последующего движения по вектору а1А, при котором цель может оказаться недостижимой (трудно достижимой), возникает угроза реализации стратегического плана. В этом случае необходимо выявить внутренние и внешние причины недостижения плановых значений индикатора, определить пути и. В каждом периоде такая оценка показывамеханизмы улучшения динамики целевого инет соотношение запроектированной и фактичедикатора.
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