“世博”背景下上海经济与环境的耦合演化

Abstract

综合运用社会经济统计与环境监测数据,揭示了"世博"背景下,上海城市内部经济发展和环境保护关系的耦合演化特征。结果发现,2002-2010年各区县经济差异明显扩大。在总体差异中,主要表现为主城区内部和郊区内部差异,主城区和郊区间的差异较小;2006年后,主城区内部差异贡献进一步增加,郊区内部差异贡献开始下降,但各区环境质量有明显改善。2006年和2010年经济环境耦合关系都满足环境库兹涅兹曲线规律,但2010年拐点处的经济水平与环境质量都明显优于2006年,各区县分布格局差异较大。研究揭示了经济结构调整与全球化、多层次城市规划体系以及世博会影响是区域经济差异及环境库兹涅茨曲线演化的主要驱动因素。建议快速发展的城市应该加速产业转型升级、发挥产业布局与城市规划作用、抓住举办城市重大活动机遇,优化经济环境耦合关系,实现城市的可持续发展。;Chinese cities have grown rapidly and experienced drastic restructuring in the last three decades since the beginning of economic reforms. Both environmental degradation and economic inequality are considered the major negative outcomes of rapid urban expansion. Against the background of the World Expo 2010, this study uses socioeconomic statistics and environmental monitoring data to reveal the relationship between urban economic development and environmental pollution in Shanghai. The results indicate that the economic disparities between all districts increased significantly between 2002 and 2010. This is primarily reflected in the internal disparities <em>within</em> urban and suburban areas, while the disparity between urban and suburban areas is relatively small. The proportion of internal disparities within urban areas to total disparities has grown since 2006, while that within suburban areas began to decline. In terms of environmental quality, all districts have improved significantly. The relationship between economic development and environmental quality in 2006 and 2010 conforms to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), and both economic development level and environmental quality are much better at the inflection point of EKC in 2010 than in 2006. The different locations of districts along the EKC reveal the coupling features of the relationship between economic development and environmental pollution in 2006 and 2010. Districts such as Jing'an, Huangpu, Luwan, and Pudong, reached high levels of economic development and environmental quality, serving as role models for districts in the old urban core and growing manufacturing districts in 2006. Districts such as Jiading, Minhang and Songjiang represent growing manufacturing centers with the worst environmental conditions. Districts such as Putuo, Yangpu and Zhabei are not as successful in economic restructuring and improvement of environmental conditions, and because their manufacturing enterprises were relocated, are struggling to identify new economic engines. With few manufacturing activities, Chongming County is an area with good environmental conditions but extremely low levels of economic development. The study further reveals that economic restructuring and globalization, multi-level urban planning, and the World Expo are the main driving forces of regional economic disparities, and the coupling relationship of the EKC between economic level and environment pollution in Shanghai. Through industrial restructuring policy and high foreign direct investment, some districts in the central urban area have achieved economic improvement, while other districts with less ability to attract similar foreign investment are struggling to restructure economically. Urban planning played an important role in relocating industries and populations by targeting districts in suburban areas. The World Expo also had key but varying influences on local economic development and environment protection, based on each district's distance from the Expo site. The paper offers policy recommendations for other fast growing cities in China. First, rapidly expanding cities should accelerate industrial restructuring to transition from manufacturing-oriented industries to modern service industries. Second, urban planning should strive to optimize the spatial relocation of industries and populations. Third, economic development and environmental protection should be facilitated by initiating major events in the city. These measures will strengthen the linkage between economic development and environmental protection, thus achieving sustainable urban development.