Abstract
The long-term forecasts of interplate earthquakes are usually given using their average occurrence intervals. In this paper, I propose a new simple forecast method; first, the accumulation rate of strain energy density is estimated on the assumption that the accumulated and released strain energies balance in a large area for a long period; second, the secular change of strain energy density is calculated in each place; finally, the earthquake occurrence probabilities within 10, 30, and 50 years are calculated using a simple relation between the earthquake occurrence rate and strain energy density. The proposed method was applied to the Kuril Trench and the Japan Trench with the earthquake data of Utsu catalogue and the database of the Japan Meteorological Agency from 1885 to 2010. The forecasts obtained are similar to those given by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion for all the regions except the region off Shikotan Island.
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Schedule a callMore From: Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan. 2nd ser.)
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