Оцінка стану державного боргу України та напрями його оптимізації

Abstract

The article aims at studying the current state of Ukraine's national debt and developing directions for its optimization. It is established that the currency component in the structure of Ukraine's national debt is slightly lower than the threshold level for the currency component in the debt structure set by the IMF for developing countries. This structure of Ukraine’s national debt indicates the dependence of the domestic financial system on currency exchange rate fluctuations and the need to increase foreign exchange costs for servicing debt obligations. The amount of debt on loans from international financial organizations and government agencies of foreign countries comprises about a third of the total amount of national and guaranteed debt, indicating significant support Ukraine receives from its international partners, especially from the International Monetary Fund. The currency component in Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt indicates high vulnerability of its financial system to currency shocks. It is established that the structure of Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt by types of interest rates is quite optimistic and indicates a low vulnerability of public finances to interest rate risks. The size of Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt in hryvnia equivalent increased during 2013–2020 by more than 4.4 times, and its growth in USD was quite moderate. It is determined that during 2020 the size of Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt increased by 27.7% in hryvnia equivalent, due to the following situations: financing the state budget deficit; the allocation of funds to combat COVID-19; national currency devaluation, etc. The ratio of national and state-guaranteed debt to GDP, reaching a maximum of 81.0% at the end of 2016, gradually decreased to 50.3% at the end of 2019, which corresponds to the norm established by the national legislation. However, the values of this index for the period under review exceed the threshold level of national debt set by international standards for countries with emerging markets (30-50% of GDP). It is shown that the 2013 2019 period saw a tendency to increase the total cost of repayment and servicing of Ukraine’s national debt, which creates the risk of refinancing national debt, causes additional pressure on the state budget and GDP, and limits Ukraine’s ability to finance its social and economic goals of social development. The main risks for Ukraine’s debt obligations are highlighted, and ways to optimize them are outlined. The need to establish a National Debt Management Agency, the activity of which would help reduce both the debt burden and the cost of public debt servicing, is substantiated.