Abstract
This study investigates the potential predictability of regional precipitation over Indochina during the Asian winter monsoon by downscaling outputs of seasonal prediction by a general circulation model (GCM) statistically. Singular decomposition analysis reveals two distinct temporal-spatial patterns between regional rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. One is anomalous dry condition over central and south Vietnam associated with a conventional El Nino pattern with the peak variability in the eastern tropical Pacific. The other is anomalous dry condition over north Vietnam associated with a new-type El Nino which has peak variability in the central Pacific. Our hindcast results show that the prediction skill associated with the conventional El Niño mode is relatively high although the new-type mode is difficult to predict. These conclusions tell us the importance of individual physicalmechanism-based validation in the application of statistical downscaling for regional climate.
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Schedule a callMore From: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)
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