Развитие подходов к мониторингу рисков недостижения национальных целей развития Российской Федерации и ее регионов

Abstract

The article presents a methodological approach to constructing limits for monitoring the risks of nonachievement of national development goals of the country and its regions. The study’s relevance lies in the fact that the implementation of the suggested approach in public administration will contribute to the implementation of an adequate assessment of the achievement of these goals at the federal level and the level of constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The solution to the problem of building the limit values “corridors” for risk monitoring of non-achievement of the country’s national development goals and regions is carried out on the methodological basis of the scenario approach with the use of indicative analysis. This allows setting the limit values “corridors” as a calculated range of fluctuations of the target indicator within its upper and lower limits. Using the suggested methodological approach, the boundary of the limit values for the indicator of the poverty level, which serves as a target indicator for the assessment of the national development goal “Population preservation, health and well-being of people” achievement is constructed. Based on the calculations obtained, as well as on the estimates of the indicator made for Krasnodar Krai and Astrakhan region, it is shown that the poverty targets defined by the national development goals and the corresponding regional strategies differ significantly from those obtained on the basis of the forecast, which determines the high risk of non-achievement the target values. The methodological approach suggested in the article makes it possible to promptly inform the management agent about the appearance of unfavorable or critical changes in the country’s social and economic development and to develop measures for the elimination of negative tendencies and support of positive trends in the achievement of national development goals.