少子化と教育投資・教育達成

Abstract

In considering the relation between population change and educational reform, investment in extra-school education can be a focal problem. In the 1990s, Japanese educational reform, and in particular cutbacks in the school curriculum, increased the need for investment in extra-school education, imposing a considerable burden on households. Also in this period, the advancement rate to higher education increased but the recession after the “bubble economy” may have led to an increased economic gap in educational achievement. Some researchers have pointed out that in spite of the declining birthrate in post-war Japan, the number of siblings was still a restrictive condition of educational achievement after controlling for social origin.In this paper, we first examined the relationship between the number of siblings and educational investment and achievement, using 2005 SSM (Social Stratification and Mobility) survey data. We found that for nearly all cohorts, both male and female, the number of siblings tended to be associated with a decrease in the experience rate of extra-school education. The number of siblings had a negative effect on investment in extra-school education. In spite of the popularization of investment into extra-school education and the declining birthrate, it seems that this negative effect of number of siblings on educational investment had endured in post-war Japan.We also found that educational investment had a stronger effect on educational achievement for the youngest cohort (born 1971-1985) than for previous cohorts. For the youngest male cohort, in particular, experience of extra-school education had a strong effect on academic achievement in junior high school, which in turn affected educational achievement. In this respect, it seems that investment to extra-school education has recently come to strengthen the “amplifying effect of meritocracy.”We then investigated the determinants of parents’ intention to make educational investment, and investment per month to their children. We found that parents’ experience of extra-school education had a major influence on their intention to make educational investments into their children after controlling for their educational levels and family income. However, educational investment per month was not determined by parents’ experience of extra-school education, but by family income and intention. We thus found that parents’ experience of extra-school education had an indirect influence on investment into extra-school education for their children through intention to provide educational investment.It has been pointed out that especially in metropolitan areas, academic achievements of children are affected by the level of monthly educational investment, which based on parent’s educational expectation and family income. This may mean that under the marketization of education, it may be that meritocracy is being substituted by “parentocracy,” i. e., a mechanisms under which parental wealth and educational expectations determine the educational achievement of children. It has also been pointed out that Japanese public expenditures on education are low by international standards and that this has imposed a heavy burden on households and accelerated the decline of the birthrate. In order to reduce both inequality in educational achievement and declining birthrate, increasing public expenditures on education may be a critical task.