Моделювання логістики становлення військового паритету сил у зоні бойових дій

Abstract

A multi-variant, multi-criteria task related to the simulation of the logistic process to establish the parity of military forces in the military conflict zone, which contributes to the successful implementation of the military operating goals, is set and solved. The relevance of the study is related to the analysis of the threats toward the parity of military forces and the threats of logistic nature caused by weapons and military equipment supply that result in the losses in the military conflict zone (losses of personnel, damages of defensive structures, transition from offensive actions to defensive ones, etc.). The study simulates the actions to establish the parity of forces in a military conflict zone in the conditions of threats and vulnerabilities related to the logistics of weapons and military equipment supplied to the war zone. The carried-out analysis of the other papers in this field revealed the shortcomings of the already existing approaches – they are aimed to study just individual components of the whole process of establishing the parity of military forces in the conflict zone, so for now, there is no comprehensive solution to the problem that makes it possible to consider the logistic aspects as well. Threat factors related to the supply of the required types and quantities of weapons to the war zone are investigated based on the qualitative assessments of military experts and lexicographic ordering of potential suppliers of weapons and military equipment. The optimization of selects the suppliers of weapons and military equipment by using integer (Boolean) programming is done. The logical sequence of actions is presented in the form of threat – vulnerabilities – damages and is investigated further by means of the theory of experiment method in the form of a full factorial experiment based on the assessments provided by military experts. The agent simulation model is created to study the logistics of military equipment supply to establish the parity of military forces in the conflict zone. This model includes the agents associated with the appearance of threats, arising of vulnerabilities, and the incurring of losses in the war zone. The supply of military equipment in a heterogeneous transport network considering the possible transshipment from one highway to another and potential temporary storage of military cargo is simulated. By using the proposed agent simulation model, the actual terms of weapons and military equipment supply in conditions of wartime threats are determined. The method to increase the efficiency of the weapons in the war zone is created using the modern types of weapons and applying of asymmetry in the military parity of forces (advantage of quality over quantity). The optimization tasks are solved in conditions of conflicting criteria of time, costs and risks related to the logistics of the process of establishing of military forces parity in the war zone. The scientific novelty of the research being conducted is related to the development of the new method based on the simulation of the logistic process of establishing military forces parity in the war zone, which allows to successfully meet the set of military operating goals.