Оценка влияния факторов баланса ресурсови использования зерна на цену пшеницы в регионах России

Abstract

In many aspects grain prices determine the inter-industry proportions of the development of the regional agro-industrial complex. However, despite the fact that resource balance and grain use are considered in the reports of the ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation to be the key tool for food market analysis to make decisions, the volatility of the grain prices is mainly explained by the change in yield or harvest in these documents. The key indicators of the resource balance and the use of grain are compared with their retrospective values; target indicators established by the State Program for the Development of Agriculture; threshold values established by the Doctrine of Food Security of the Russian Federation. The question about the effect of these indicators on the wheat price is not considered in the above mentioned documents. The strategic importance of this issue has led to the increase of scientific publications that are devoted to the assessment of pricing factors at the grain market. Based on the review of scientific papers on the selected topic and organizational features of the market in question models were specified, where the indicators of industrial consumption (including own consumption of agriculture and related industries), interregional and international cooperation (exports, imports, commodity turnover between regions) and stock levels for 56 regions of Russia for 8 years were used as an information base. The estimation of pricing factors at the regional wheat market was carried out on the basis of key balance indicators using panel data models. They allow eliminating the disadvantages of the given models associated with the unobservable heterogeneity of data and the unreliable ratio between the number of explanatory variables and observations. The evaluated models have demonstrated the importance of changes in the balance factors of the use of grains and stocks, which confirms the effectiveness of measures to manage the amount of unused grain. The efficiency of measures made by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation is currently restricted by the deficit of grain elevator capacity and the absence of strategy of grain realization by the state investment fund. The existing measures of the state regulation of the grain stock value and the priority tasks necessary to carry out an effective policy for the management of stocks in order to ensure food independence have been considered. To improve the predictive power of the model suggested by the authors to assess the pricing factors at the regional wheat market, a promising direction of research is the evaluation of dynamic models of panel data. Keywords pricing, regional grain market, wheat prices, pricing factors, food security, food independence, a state investment fund, panel data. Acknowledgements The work was carried out on the state task of Omsk Scientific Centre of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences in accordance to the Program of fundamental scientific researches of state academic sciences for 2013‒2020 in the direction XI.174, project № XI.174.1.7 (Project registration number in the Unified State Information System of Accounting for Research, Development and Technological Works for Civil Purposes is АААА-А17-117041210229-2).